What if California were to secede from the United States? Is a Brexit-style “Calexit” even legal? And how might the state’s departure, and the loss of its 55 electoral votes, influence future presidential elections? It’s this last question that piqued the curiosity of Brighton High sophomore Jenna Rupper and that impressed the judges of Canyons District’s 2017 Science and Engineering Fair.
Rupper is among 110 finalists chosen from a field of about 300 to represent CSD at the Salt Lake Regional and Engineering Fair in March where she’ll compete for tens-of-thousands of dollars in college scholarships. If judges there are equally impressed with her data modeling project exploring the political ramifications of a Calexit, she’ll join a select number of students to advance to the International Science and Engineering Fair.
Like most scientific inquiries, Rupper’s started with a question drawn from observation or experience in her case, from current affairs. Her favorite school subjects have always been math and science, but over the past few years she’s been intrigued by politics, particularly the data-driven journalism and opinion poll analyses produced by the blogging platform, FiveThirtyEight. “An independent group in California has been talking about withdrawing from the Union, so I looked at past presidential elections dating back to 1992 to see how they might have gone if California wasn’t part of the U.S.”
Because California has more electoral votes than any other state, and has historically supported Democratic candidates, Rupper hypothesized that it’s absence would tip the balance of votes in favor of Republican Presidents. Using historical U.S. Census data and the University of Michigan’s Electoral College calculator, she re-calculated election results with California out of the equation.
Her data modeling produced an average 3 percent shift in electoral votes not enough to flip any of the Presidential races. “California’s secession could still influence Congressional races and the balance of power in Congress, and it could have economic consequences for the country,” Rupper said. “But concerns about a Presidential shift in power might be overstated.”
If Rupper had more time, she says she’d like to re-run the data to test what would happen if electoral votes were apportioned the same way as Congressional seats.
The Salt Lake Valley Science and Engineering Fair will be held March 21-23, 2017 at the University of Utah’s Rice Eccles Stadium. The awards ceremony will be held March 24 at Olympus High School 4055 S 2300 E, Holladay, UT 84124. Here is a full list of CSD’s 70 elementary division and 40 junior and senior division finalists:
Altara Elementary
Hailey Richards
Luciana Bizek
Nora Wetzel
Ruby Gardner
Brookwood Elementary
Eli Baker
Walker Malmstrom
Natalie Morrill
Canyon View Elementary
Erin Chan
Luke Barlow
Jack Baird
Talmage Howe
Crescent Elementary
Mackenzie McKay
Marcus Evans
Taylor Gould
Draper Elementary
Easton Adamson
Granite Elementary
Peyton Seamons
Halle Terry
William Bohmholdt
Oakdale Elementary
Mateo Paul
Park Lane Elementary
Chantel Moore
Riley Roof
Kambri Butcher
Carissa Culberson
Preston Cheney
Mitch Stepan
Spencer Moore
Charlie Wanek
Ty Spillett
Peruvian Park Elementary
Edward Loh
Fiona Zara
Gabriel Williams
Jacob Arens
Katrina Rogecheva
Liliya Barashyan
Quail Hollow Elementary
Eva Chamberlain
Priscilla Smingler
Silver Mesa Elementary
Keyan Olson
Sunrise Elementary
Carson Wood
Elena Parker
Jaden Andrew Aguilon
Logan Bridge
Maryam Bassaid
Nayantara Nair
Nicholas Perrine
Savannah Sierer
Sterling Perry
Zach Tokita
Albion Middle School
Anegilla Keefer
Anna Mitchell
Cara Cheatham
Chaitrali Samant
Charlie Caten
Adam Liu
Charlie Simmons
Riley Gillespie
Eli Rehmer
Cameron Johns
Mason Young
Erica McDermott
Eryn Huntamer
Fatima Zaidi
Garett George
Dillon Barney
Jayden Olsen
Grace Wong
Ashley Hill
Jared Kimball
Katie Kelly
Ashlyn Thomson
Olivia Vandersteen
Lakshmi Adiga
Lilly Cheatham
Allie Jager
Lindsey Peterson
Madison Goerke
Annabella Franco
Emma Nieporte
Nathan Hunter
Paris Freebairn
Paul Glade
Raunya Barakat
Ski Dalgleish
Vincent Van Leeuwen
Wyatt Rawson
Bryson Petzinger
Cassidy Kenney
Chesney Chin
MaKenzi Thomson
Drew Stevens
Easton Ashworth
Ellie Whitmore
Emily Villanueva
Emmaline Young
Hanna Sasivarevic
Hassan Alabbas
Isabella Grim
Katelyn Simmons
Ashlie Sperry
Maloree West
Mercedes Cole
Naiya Chamberlain
Porter Bach
Andrew Hill
Raegan Rutherford
Reagan Manwaring
Sam Clayton
Sarah Hunter
Sienna Christensen
Zane Wong
Jaron Hansen
Stewart Sonntag
Midvale Middle
Andry Joseph
Danju Zoe Liu
Eric Chen
Joel Larrabee
Matthew Simmons
Luke Cox
Ryan Chen
Warren Ellsworth
Lucas Bolster
Selena Yu
Urah Goh
Abigail GIolas
Wentao Zhang
Eric Snaufer
Abigail Slama-Clatron
Marianne Liu
Brighton High
Jenna Rupper
Hillcrest High
Alan Zhao
Alex Sun
Alexander Cheng
Jaehyun Han
Sai Parsawar
Wensen Zhang
